Preface: Winning at betting is not easy for one reason: the house maintains a mathematical advantage that is on average 5%, but can be as high as 8%. For this reason, certain rules must be followed with a lot of discipline. For those who are less experienced, we reveal some tricks and tips that can be very useful.
Winning at Betting: Value Odds
Bookmakers always maintain a mathematical advantage. Our chances of winning are slim and we have to be good at exploiting them when the house miscalculates and sets the odds (called value odds or value bets) incorrectly.
For this basic concept for the world of betting, we refer you to our ad hoc section where we wrote about value betting and the tricks you can use to spot it.
When you bet on value, the mathematical advantage is on your side, not the banker’s, and that is the only way to win seriously.
But let us give other useful and very simple tips for those who are not used to professional betting.
Value bets: when the odds are significantly above the market average (spread odds)
Many bettors have a hard time recognizing value odds, but there are two tricks to understanding when a odds has potential in this regard:
● In general, value rates must be much higher than the market average (I assure you there are some of them).
● when the odds are higher than the Pinnacle line, which for professional bettors is the bookmaker that calculates the odds almost perfectly (thanks, among other things, to the handling of large volumes) and is unbeatable in the long run.
Winning when betting: Always bet on the highest odds on the market
This may seem like a trivial concept, but few people actually apply it. The smartest bettors, on the other hand, have accounts open with many bookmakers and only bet when the odds are favorable (that is, they are very high).
Using and consulting odds comparators or services that tell you when a odds is higher than the competition is a good way to approach betting.
Let me give you a trivial example: always bet with a stake of 100 euros. If you use comparators (eg Oddschecker, one of the most popular) you will notice that there can be interesting differences, especially in open markets (when the odds become known).
The odds are similar at the start of the sporting event, but there are significant differences at the start. And when betting at odds (I’ll give a trivial example) of 1.40 compared to odds of 1.30, there is a catastrophic difference.
Let’s say we place 3 out of 4 bets: in the first case (odds 1.40) we make a profit of 20 euros (ROI 5%), in the second case we would have lost 10 euros instead (negative ROI -2.5%). This is an extreme example, but one that clearly shows the difference between a winner and a loser when betting.
Winning at Betting: Timing is Everything
As I told you, the odds change from the opening to the closing of the markets. The most skilful and experienced bettors sometimes manage to spot the wrong odds (value odds) in the long run. But it is only a matter of time before the odds change. You have to have timing.
Especially in the opening phase, there is a spread between the odds, the prices often differ from each other. And there are odds that are sometimes much higher than they should be. And in fact, they immediately drop because the more experienced players recognize the intrinsic value of the odds and bet a lot of money, which pushes them down.
Winning at betting: Knowing the life of a stock, the falling odds
Since a rate can change even significantly from the opening to the closing price due to the accumulated volumes (in some rare cases by up to 40 percent), it is important to know the lifespan of a rate: if it has increased, then there is a lower probability of making a profit (only small volumes are matched), if it is decreasing (decreasing) with a fluctuation of over 20 percent, then you need to analyze well the reasons and causes (violations, etc.), because the money has flowed over this mark.
Sometimes it’s just simple speculation by the markets, but in many cases there’s a real reason why the stock fell, prompting bettors to bet massive amounts of money on that outcome.
Winning when betting: Never bet on multiple schedules, but on single bets
We have explained to you scientifically why it is wrong to bet on many events on multiple bet slips. The house edge multiplies and it becomes impossible for the bettor to be a winner in the long run.
The only theoretical way to win with multiples is to enter only value odds, but it is not that easy to find at least two incorrect odds from the same bookmaker at the same time.
But trust us, math is not opinion: when you make multiple bets, the house edge can be up to 30% higher than the actual odds (i.e. you get much less than your risk).
Winning in the long term when betting: respect your balance and be responsible
The key, as with poker, is to never risk your entire budget on a few bets, but to manage your bankroll intelligently and responsibly.
In general, professionals assign a risk to each individual bet equal to a percentage of their budget, which varies between 1 and 5 percent depending on the bet and many other factors.
The only way to be truly successful at betting is to manage your money well, act responsibly and use your head!